Should Danica Stay or Should She Go?

NASCAR would be a career-killing move for Danica. If she jumps directly to the Sprint Cup she will struggle to qualify and her chances of running competitively are somewhere between slim and none. In two years or less, she will flee back to IndyCar and her brand will be greatly diminished (think “I’m a celebrity, get me out here” diminished).

Cup cars are totally different from IndyCars – like flying a 747 vs. a fighter jet. History is littered with much better open wheel drivers than Danica who have tried and failed to be competitive in NASCAR (Dario Franchitti and Sam Hornish Jr.most recently). I’m sure she would find a sponsor and I’m sure NASCAR would make all sorts of hay around her in the first year, but how interesting is it when she doesn’t qualify or runs 40th? How likely is that sponsor to stay around for more than a year or two?

However, sad to say it sounds like she will make the move soon because of all the so-called experts saying she can bring in $50m and add 10% to the ratings. The only smart way to do it is to take Jimmie Johnson’s advice to her, race in the development leagues of NASCAR for a couple of years before trying the switch - but there’s no way she’ll do that. This move will work out as well as if Usain Bolt played wide receiver in the NFL.

There’s no downside for NASCAR though. In addition to a short-term ratings and PR boost, it will serve as another kick in the guts for IndyCar  just as the sport is finally getting some momentum back. If I was IndyCar Supremo Tony George, I would write her a personal check for several million to stay in the IRL – it may be the only way to save her career and his.